Joel Kiviranta

Market value

Estimate based on comparable contracts — not a prediction of negotiations.

Projected AAV range (next contract): $953,400 – $4,812,400 (mid $1,770,600)

Most common term among comparables: 2 years

Regime shift — limited sampleP10–P90 · post-Carlsson elite market

Recent market runs −11.5 % below historical comparables — adjustment applied.

Comparable contracts

• Danton Heinen (2026-27, $1,000,000 × 1 · ★)
• Mark Jankowski (2025-26, $1,850,000 × 2)
• Mattias Janmark (2024-25, $1,450,000 × 3)
• Jordan Martinook (2024-25, $3,075,000 × 3)
• Adam Gaudette (2025-26, $2,000,000 × 2)
• Casey Cizikas (2021-22, $2,500,000 × 6)
• Adam Lowry (2025-26, $5,000,000 × 5)
• William Carrier (2024-25, $2,100,000 × 6)

Methodology & backtest